In an article titled “Predicting the Free Agency Contracts of Top Pitchers,” New York Post columnist John Heyman ranked Ryu Hyun-jin at No. 15, saying that he “could earn a major league contract with a solid finish to the season,” and introduced his predictions as “Expert 1: $13 million for one year, Expert 2: $10 million for one year plus incentives, and me: $12 million for one year.
All three experts, including myself, saw Ryu’s free agent contract as more than $10 million.
Note the phrase “solid finish to the season”. Ryu returned in early August after undergoing Tommy John surgery last June and a 13-month rehabilitation. In 11 games and 52 innings pitched, he went 3-3 with a 3.46 ERA, 38 strikeouts, a 1.288 WHIP, and a 0.257 batting average.토토사이트
With the exception of a season-ending road game against the Tampa Bay Rays, where he gave up five runs on seven hits, including three home runs, and three walks in 4 1/3 innings, he pitched flawlessly. While he hasn’t earned the complete trust of the coaching staff, he has been recognized for performing above expectations, which manager John Schneider called a “bonus.
Ryu’s free agency is expected to be worth at least $10 million. AP Yonhap
Local media outlets and scouts were also generally positive, suggesting that Ryu would receive at least $10 million per year, even if he was not guaranteed more than two years.
However, controversy erupted when Jim Borden, a columnist for The Athletic, estimated Ryu’s contract at “one year, $8 million plus incentives,” suggesting that he could sign with the Toronto Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins or Detroit Tigers.
Even on a one-year deal, $8 million per year seems like a “bargain” given the positive local media coverage so far.
A day later, Tim Britton, a reporter for the same outlet, predicted the market value of free agent Ryu Hyun-jin at $11 million per year plus incentives. It was a prediction using mathematical and statistical methods. Britton explained that he used “the last 10 years of free agent and extension signings, as well as previous big contracts, linked to the current season’s performance, specifically Fangraphs WAR (fWAR),” and concluded that “Ryu has been regressing since 2020, but he’s had a longer stretch of standout performances than Maeda. He pitched well upon his return from TJS.
Britton lumped other free agent veterans Genta Maeda and Lance Lynn into the same category as Ryu, projecting each at $10 million per year. Ryu’s value was more generous.
Add to that the $12 million offer from Heyman, a leading MLB columnist, and Ryu’s free agency value is likely to be at least $10 million per year. As a result, it is unlikely that Ryu will return to the KBO.
Major League Baseball has officially entered the offseason, with the Texas Rangers’ inaugural pennant wrapping up the 2023 schedule. Free agents have eight days to negotiate with their original teams and 15 days to accept qualifying offers (QOs). After the 15th, they are free to contact any club. The free agent market is officially open.
Ryu Hyun-jin received a QO when he was with the Los Angeles Dodgers, so he is free to negotiate with any team after eight days, including Toronto.